Sachin as a celebrity MP

Sachin Tendulkar’s decision to accept nomination of Rajya Sabha has come in for heavy criticism from the public. Soon after the news was reported, the Twitter world went berserk, and hashtag #UnfollowSachin was trending Worldwide. Opinion polls such as those on The Times of India website indicate three - fourth's of the people disapprove of the development.  Media reactions were more restrained, trying to balance criticism with respect for Sachin the cricketer. Journalists writing in the print media used euphemistic tones, “cautioning” Sachin about the “challenges” that lay ahead. The electronic media did what it does best – organize debates without adding anything of value. Political reactions were of course, the worst, ranging from purely hypocritical to downright ridiculous. The Communist Party of India (CPI), for instance, demanded that Sourav Ganguly should also be nominated to the House, as if they are building a cricket team in Parliament.

But is the pessimism surrounding Sachin’s nomination justified?

Performance data of Members of Parliament (MPs) is now available online. The data assesses performance of all the MPs along parameters such as asking questions, participation in debates, including raising important issues, introduction of Private Member’s Bills and attendance in Parliament. I downloaded the data and looked for how celebrities have done. Data indicates that performance of celebrities in the current Lok Sabha is mixed, and generally ranges from poor to below average.

Performance of celebrities in the current Lok Sabha (till 31^st March 2012)

Name	Debate	Pvt. Member’s Bills	Questions	Attendance
Jaya Prada	19	0	366	32%
Kirti Azad	17	0	140	92%
Navjyot Sidhu	3	0	99	29%
Shatrughan Sinha	3	0	66	74%
Azharuddin	2	0	5	77%
Raj Babbar*	1	0	0	70%
National Average	23	0.4	177	78%

(*Term started on 10/11/2009, for all others 18/05/2009)

(Source: www.sansadratna.in)

Jaya Prada, for example has recorded only 32 percent attendance in Parliament, though has asked a lot of questions. Kirti Azad has been present in Parliament 92% of the time, but has scored slightly below the national average in participation in debates and asking questions. Sidhu has neither attended Parliament much nor taken part in debates, while Azharuddin and Raj Babbar have been little more than spectators.

Of course, the above metrics may not be perfect. For example, ‘attendance’ only means signing the Attendance Register for the day and does not mean the member was present for the whole day and listened with rapt attention to what was going on. There can also be other parameters on which an MP can be judged, but this is the best data that is currently available.

In another article, The Times of India has also drawn the similar conclusions about nominees to the Rajya Sabha, though it only quotes the attendance record in its support.

Attendance record of some celebrities in Rajya Sabha

Name	Sittings Attended	Total sittings	Percentage
Lata Mangeshkar	6	170	3.53%
Mrinal Sen	30	170	17.65%
Shabana Azmi	113	170	66.47%
Hema Malini	50	127	39.37%
Dara Singh	76	127	59.84%

(Source: The Times of India)

Personally, there would be nothing wrong if Sachin Tendulkar is entering politics. In fact, Sachin can do a lot of good for the country if he wants to, and only time will tell what he actually does. But his accepting the post even before retiring from active cricket has certainly not gone down well the people. It indicates he treats the post  merely as an ornamental one. The carefully orchestrated Bharat Ratna media campaign may also get punctured, as Sachin accepts a government largesse which is seen as significantly below his demi-God stature. And then, there is this whole issue of legality of his appointment.

This just isn't cricket, Sachin. Very disappointing.

Returns or Inflation?

Between July 2008 and today, the Indian Rupee has lost 40 % of its value.

Talk about rising prices, and discussion in the media inevitably revolves around the Inflation Rate. The Finance Minister talks about the Inflation Rate, so does the RBI Governor, the experts on TV channels and journos from the print & electronic media – all you get to hear from them is the Inflation Rate. Further, more often than not, they refer to the WPI (Wholesale Price Index), while what matters to the people is the CPI (Consumer Price Index). A meaningful analysis of how rising prices are hitting the venerated (just for namesake!) 'aam aadmi' is therefore, conspicuous by its absence. To understand why I say so, you first need to know what the problem with the Inflation Rate is.

This is what they show you - falling inflation (click to enlarge)

The Inflation Rate shows the difference between price of a commodity (or price index) over a period of one year. It compares the current price of a commodity with its price at the same point of time a  year ago. So if the price of loaf of bread was Rs.20 exactly one year back, and it is Rs. 22 today, we say inflation rate is 10 %. (Rs.2 over Rs.20).

But the inflation rate completely ignores prices more than one year away. If your perspective is long term, as it should be, the current inflation rate will tell you nothing about how prices have risen over a longer period of time. If prices double in a year, and remain where they are for another year, you will get an inflation rate of zero, though over a two year period, prices would have gone up by almost 50 % per annum. Therefore, while inflation rate has its uses, it is also important to look at the actual price index itself, to get a proper perspective on prices. Unfortunately, the media, and their  so-called experts are rarely interested in such finer details.

This is what the truth is - ever rising prices (click to enlarge)

Take a look at the news items, such as this or this or this Rarely will you find a mention of the actual price index. So I thought it would be worthwhile to see what was has happened to prices actually, rather than the inflation rate since July 2008. I used the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and not the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), since that is what matters the most to the people. What I found out was what I told you in the first sentence of this article – the Rupee has lost 40 % of its value in the last three & half years. The CPI (IW) which was at 143 on  31^st July, 2008 stood at 199 on 29^th February, 2012, almost 40 % higher. What does this mean? In simple terms, what ever Rs.100 could buy in July 2008 costs Rs.140 today. 

Now, if you were to adjust any of the current prices to this, you will get the real picture of price increase / decrease during the period. Adjust Sensex or the Nifty to this, and the indices which apparently have given a return of 24 % during this period actually end up with a loss of 11% ! Even property price rise has been very modest (19 % in 3 & 1/2 years) while Gold has performed the best.

As on	31-Jul-08	29-Feb-12	29-Feb-12*	Real Returns
CPI (IW)	143	199	143	0%
Sensex	14356	17753	12757	-11%
Nifty	4333	5385	3870	-11%
Gold@	12530	28599	20551	64%
Property#	117	193	139	19%

(* Inflation adjusted level) (@ MCX Spot price per 10 gms) (# NHB's Residex for Mumbai) (All Returns are absolute, not annualised)

To assess the price performance of anything over the long term, you need to deflate it with the price level. That is when you will get the real picture.   

Note: In 2011, the Government issued a new series using 2010 as the base. As per the new series, the inflation rate is 9.45% and 10.30% for Urban India in February and March 2012 respectively, even higher than what the above figures indicate. For want of adequate history, I have used the old series of CPI in my calculations above.