In an extraordinary move one fine
evening in November last year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced sudden withdrawal of 86% of India’s currency in circulation, in what he termed as a crackdown
on black money. In a predominantly cash based economy like India, it was an unprecedented
move and has no parallel anywhere in the world. While
the last word on “
notebandi” has not
been said yet, several elections – both local bodies and states - since then confirm voters have not been averse to the action. This is in sharp
contrast to what was shown incessantly on electronic media during those
eventful days of acute currency shortages. Besides a verdict on demonetization, here are
some takeaways from recent elections in the country not just in the five states that went to
polls last month, but elsewhere as well.
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| Democracy is flourishing in India as voters demand performance & accountability |
The mainstream media has no touch with reality. I wonder how they
justify the crores they get as salary. For example, the sheer scale of BJP’s
election victory in Uttar Pradesh is mindboggling. Yet, throughout the election
campaign, the media painted a picture of a keen contest between the “
UP ke ladke” Vs. Narendra Modi, with
Mayawati’s BSP thrown in for some additional spice. The media narrative portrayed
a largely equal fight, or occasionally an edge to the BJP depending on whom you believed. As if to justify prior coverage, the exit polls also
reflected similar trends, with BJP a bit ahead of the rest but not too much. But it
all fell flat when the results were declared. This is true not just for U.P. but
elsewhere as well. Recall that the non-stop coverage for more than a month of the poor
“suffering” in bank queues (some even died!) also turned out to be top class fiction. Clearly, if you are watching too
much TV, especially the newsroom debates & “expert” analyses, you are wasting
your time. Go, get a life.
There is no substitute for hard work. Narendra Modi’s charisma sits
on top of several decades of solid ground level work by RSS & several of
its affiliate organizations in the remotest corners of the country. You cannot
build a sustainable electoral model without some real groundwork & voter connect at the
grassroots. Mulayam Singh Yadav built Samajwadi
Party from scratch. He has spent his whole life in the rough & tumble of
U.P.’s realpolitik, connecting with people, building relations and nurturing
the party to what it is. In the 2012 U.P. State Assembly elections, people voted
for Samajwadi Party with “Netaji” in mind. But it was Akhilesh who was made the
CM. You can inherit party posts but not the personal
touch & rapport with the people. You have to build that yourself. Governing a State &
showcasing a couple of projects is one thing, having a grassroots level connect
with the people that makes them vote for you again & again is another. It is no surprise that cutting
across party lines, one can see that most second generation politicians are
failures.
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| There are no shortcuts to success, no substitute for real groundwork and people connect |
Leadership matters. In Uttar Pradesh, Narendra Modi staked his personal
reputation at risk and led the battle from the front. There is no doubt that
BJP could not have pulled off such a huge success if Modi had stayed away from
campaigning or only made token appearances. Ideology has ceased to matter. Choosing your party is no longer a question of ideology you subscribe to. All parties call themselves socialist and secular. Nobody reads party manifestos. Even freebies have ceased
to matter, if only because everyone promises a bountiful of them, so the factor
gets neutralized. People want forceful, decisive
leadership.
There are no vote banks. The “secular” narrative is dead.
Sixty five percent of India’s
population is below the age of 35. The median age of an Indian is 27.6 years. The
generation which saw Partition has passed away. To a large section of today’s
voters, even the Ayodhya demolition is “history”. And voters are no longer swayed
by what happened in history. The BJP has successfully shed its “communal”
label. Even Muslim attitudes towards BJP are changing. But like an Ostrich who
buries its head in the sand, the old generation “secular” politicians - most of
them past their retirement age - refuse to see this reality. Even the caste factor
is overrated. Just because one can generate caste-wise statistics and blabber some
nonsense, it does not follow that voters who cast their vote ‘vote their caste’. Even
where a correlation exists between the caste of the electorate & the
elected, it does not prove causation. I have not seen a single survey or
opinion poll which asked the voters
why
they voted for a candidate they did, and majority of the voters pointed to
caste as the driving factor. No wonder sand it slipping from under
the feet of parties who thrived on such narrow agendas. In an article
three years back, I called such parties “
Dodos of Indian Politics”.
Voters have become demanding. Television & radio has reached
every home. Internet penetration is increasing rapidly. Literacy has improved significantly
over the years. People are much more aware of what’s happening in & around
them. You just can’t take them for a ride anymore with empty promises. The
voters have become demanding, and politicians who fail to deliver get thrown
out. This is repeatedly getting proved one election after another, be it in
Nitish Kumar retaining Bihar, or the Akalis losing Punjab.
Despite its recent spate of
successes, even BJP cannot rest on its laurels. It will have to deliver
genuine improvements to the lives of the people. Otherwise the same fate awaits
them.
