What we learn from recent elections in India

In an extraordinary move one fine evening in November last year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced sudden withdrawal of 86% of India’s currency in circulation, in what he termed as a crackdown on black money. In a predominantly cash based economy like India, it was an unprecedented move and has no parallel anywhere in the world. While the last word on “notebandi” has not been said yet, several elections – both local bodies and states - since then confirm voters have not been averse to the action. This is in sharp contrast to what was shown incessantly on electronic media during those eventful days of acute currency shortages. Besides a verdict on demonetization, here are some takeaways from recent elections in the country not just in the five states that went to polls last month, but elsewhere as well.

Democracy is flourishing in India as voters demand performance & accountability

The mainstream media has no touch with reality. I wonder how they justify the crores they get as salary. For example, the sheer scale of BJP’s election victory in Uttar Pradesh is mindboggling. Yet, throughout the election campaign, the media painted a picture of a keen contest between the “UP ke ladke” Vs. Narendra Modi, with Mayawati’s BSP thrown in for some additional spice. The media narrative portrayed a largely equal fight, or occasionally an edge to the BJP depending on whom you believed. As if to justify prior coverage, the exit polls also reflected similar trends, with BJP a bit ahead of the rest but not too much. But it all fell flat when the results were declared. This is true not just for U.P. but elsewhere as well. Recall that the non-stop coverage for more than a month of the poor “suffering” in bank queues (some even died!) also turned out to be top class fiction. Clearly, if you are watching too much TV, especially the newsroom debates & “expert” analyses, you are wasting your time. Go, get a life.

There is no substitute for hard work. Narendra Modi’s charisma sits on top of several decades of solid ground level work by RSS & several of its affiliate organizations in the remotest corners of the country. You cannot build a sustainable electoral model without some real groundwork & voter connect at the grassroots. Mulayam Singh Yadav built Samajwadi Party from scratch. He has spent his whole life in the rough & tumble of U.P.’s realpolitik, connecting with people, building relations and nurturing the party to what it is. In the 2012 U.P. State Assembly elections, people voted for Samajwadi Party with “Netaji” in mind. But it was Akhilesh who was made the CM. You can inherit party posts but not the personal touch & rapport with the people. You have to build that yourself. Governing a State & showcasing a couple of projects is one thing, having a grassroots level connect with the people that makes them vote for you again & again is another. It is no surprise that cutting across party lines, one can see that most second generation politicians are failures.

There are no shortcuts to success, no substitute for real groundwork and people connect

Leadership matters. In Uttar Pradesh, Narendra Modi staked his personal reputation at risk and led the battle from the front. There is no doubt that BJP could not have pulled off such a huge success if Modi had stayed away from campaigning or only made token appearances. Ideology has ceased to matter. Choosing your party is no longer a question of ideology you subscribe to. All parties call themselves socialist and secular. Nobody reads party manifestos. Even freebies have ceased to matter, if only because everyone promises a bountiful of them, so the factor gets neutralized. People want forceful, decisive leadership.

There are no vote banks. The “secular” narrative is dead. Sixty five percent of India’s population is below the age of 35. The median age of an Indian is 27.6 years. The generation which saw Partition has passed away. To a large section of today’s voters, even the Ayodhya demolition is “history”. And voters are no longer swayed by what happened in history. The BJP has successfully shed its “communal” label. Even Muslim attitudes towards BJP are changing. But like an Ostrich who buries its head in the sand, the old generation “secular” politicians - most of them past their retirement age - refuse to see this reality. Even the caste factor is overrated. Just because one can generate caste-wise statistics and blabber some nonsense, it does not follow that voters who cast their vote ‘vote their caste’. Even where a correlation exists between the caste of the electorate & the elected, it does not prove causation. I have not seen a single survey or opinion poll which asked the voters why they voted for a candidate they did, and majority of the voters pointed to caste as the driving factor. No wonder sand it slipping from under the feet of parties who thrived on such narrow agendas. In an article three years back, I called such parties “Dodos of Indian Politics”.  

Voters have become demanding. Television & radio has reached every home. Internet penetration is increasing rapidly. Literacy has improved significantly over the years. People are much more aware of what’s happening in & around them. You just can’t take them for a ride anymore with empty promises. The voters have become demanding, and politicians who fail to deliver get thrown out. This is repeatedly getting proved one election after another, be it in Nitish Kumar retaining Bihar, or the Akalis losing Punjab. 

Despite its recent spate of successes, even BJP cannot rest on its laurels. It will have to deliver genuine improvements to the lives of the people. Otherwise the same fate awaits them.

Four ways of bringing back Black Money

The subject of black money stashed abroad has attracted considerable attention in recent times. It was an important issue in last year’s general elections, and UPA government’s inaction was seen as one of the reasons behind its electoral defeat. Recently, the NDA government has introduced the Undisclosed Foreign Income and Assets (Imposition of Tax) Bill 2015, popularly known as the Black Money Bill, in the Parliament. In a discussion organized by the Moneylife Foundation, Dr. Subramanian Swamy (sorry, he doesn’t need an introduction!) shared his views on the bill, and black money in general. Here is a quick recap of the event. (I have given a more detailed perspective on the black money issue in a previous post, click here)

By some estimates, an amount of approximately Rs.120 lac crores is lying outside the country. Dr. Swamy started by saying the bill falls short of the objectives of bringing back this amout. The bill depends on the assumption that the money is detected or declared by the assessee, but does not have steps to actually bring it back. It is essentially a "tax bill", clarifying how to tax what is already known. It can also be misused, as it gives draconian powers to tax officials.

Dr. Swamy said there are two aspects to this whole issue – first, bringing back the money stashed abroad and second, stopping creation of new black money. On the first, he said there are four ways of dealing with the problem.

The Black Money Bill will not bring back the money, said Dr. Swamy at a Moneylife event

One, exchange of information under Double Tax Avoidance Treaties (DTAA). India has DTAA with several countries. An Indian assessee having income in a foreign country (say, Germany) and intent on avoiding tax tells India he is paying tax in Germany, and tells the Germans he is paying tax in India. Actually, he pays at neither place. Such cases can be detected with exchange of information between the two countries. Most media discussion on the black money subject is centered on this aspect. The UPA pursued only this angle during their rule. However, this is a very small aspect of the overall quantum of black money.  

A second alternative is to obtain details of account holders who are holding accounts abroad secretly and illegally, secretly and illegally! In one instance, Germany reportedly bribed bank officials and obtained information about its nationals holding accounts in Liechtenstein, a tax haven in the heart of Europe. France did the same with HSBC.

A third alternative is to extract information by force, used by the U.S. (who else?) against banks such as Credit Suisse and UBS. The U.S. government charged local branches of these banks with crime, arrested its officials and forced the banks to share information.

Finally, Fali Nariman, a noted Indian constitutional expert and lawyer has suggested that an ordinance can be passed nationalizing all foreign assets lying abroad, and asking all other countries to repatriate the money to India. There is a 2005 United Nations Resolution backing this, and the foreign governments will be forced to comply, irrespective of their bank secrecy laws. This has been done very effectively by Egypt to recover illegal assets of its former President Hosni Mubarak, by Libya against Qaddafi and by Philippines against Ferdinand Marcos.

Dr. Swamy said this last method is the best and the cleanest method to recover the money lying abroad. Incidentally, this is the same one I have mentioned in my previous blog post on this subject (link given above) as “the one I have found the most actionable” quoting an article by India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval. 

Besides the issue of bringing back money stashed abroad, a second aspect is how to stop its generation in the first place. In this, he touched upon a number of topics such as the need to abolish P-notes due to its role in facilitating money laundering, abolishing income tax, streamlining excise, bringing in e-governance and quickly & efficiently delivering justice to a few ‘big fish’ caught in the act. He recalled how Bernie Madoff was quickly sentenced to 150 years in prison within just six months of his fraud coming to light. On the other hand, Ramalinga Raju's case, which came to light at around the same time, is still dragging in court. Dr. Swamy also stressed the need for deregulation and simplification. For example, he pointed out that more than 2000 products have excise on them, but 90% of excise revenue comes from just 22 products. He emphasized that honesty needs to be encouraged in society. 

There was a very interesting question & answer session at the end, where he took questions from audience and touched upon several other aspects of corruption and black money. On the whole, a very engaging session!

Do airlines "fleece" passengers?

For over two decades, the Ministry of Civil Aviation has presided over the demise of many an airlines in the country. As one more airline prepares to breath its last, a series of measures are being “considered” in an effort to “do something”. Among the proposals being considered is a ridiculous proposal to cap airfares. “…to prevent airlines from both over-charging passengers in spot fares while at the same time ensuring that airlines do not offer very cheap fares below the cost of operation….the ministry sources had recently indicated that there could be a cap of about Rs. 15,000 on maximum fare on any sector. The ministry sources are exploring the possibility of linking fares to the distance per km. Civil aviation minister Ashok Gajapathi Raju is currently examining the proposal which could be cleared by the ministry very soon…”. 

In fact, every time airfares go up, the myth of airlines ‘fleecing’ air passengers rears its head. What is shocking is that even the DGCA subscribes to this view. Its high time this myth about fleecing air passengers is busted.

Can the Ministry of Civil Aviation explain why - since 1991 – aviation has done so badly while every other industry in the country has prospered ?

Aviation is a difficult business

An aircraft is a complex machine. An average commercial aircraft takes 6 months to build and costs a million dollars. A popular airplane such as a Boeing 737 is made up of 6,00,000 parts while the bigger ones like Boeing 777 may have them in millions. Malfunctioning of a single part can prove fatal, as the plane flies in inhospitable conditions 30,000 feet above the earth’s surface.  Modern day planes carry ‘autopilot’ modes that use computer software to control & guide the aircraft, eliminating human errors. Aviation consumes billions of dollars in R & D expenditure, and has over the years made our flying experience safer, faster and better.

Notwithstanding some recent incidents, air travel is remarkably safe and punctual. Most flights take off and land on time, and accident rates are near zero. Boeing reports that in more than half a century of commercial flights (1959-2013), there have been less than two thousand accidents across the globe, of which only one third had fatalities. Compare this with accident statistics on road, where more than 1.1 million people have died in road accidents in India in just the last ten years (2003-2012) alone.

For all this, and the sheer speed of travel, the passengers have to pay.

The economics of aviation business

Running an airline is highly capital intensive. Aircrafts are expensive, specialized technical staff such as engineers and pilots don’t come cheap either. An inventory of spare parts needs to be kept at all times. Maintenance facilities are few and expensive. India’s aircrafts reportedly fly to places like Singapore and Abu Dhabi for maintenance. More than 50% of the operating costs of an airline are fuel costs alone. All these costs are recovered mainly from sale of tickets and booking of cargo. But in India the business is taxed heavily under the faulty notions of “taxing the rich”. A large chunk of the ticket price you pay never reaches the company and is pre-empted by the government.

Once a flight has been “scheduled”, all the costs are almost fixed. Whether the flight takes off with ten passengers or a hundred, it costs the same to the airline. In other words, the incremental cost of flying an ‘additional’ passenger is almost zero. This lends the airline industry neatly to a dynamic pricing model, where empty seats in a flight can be sold off cheap – every additional rupee directly adds to the recovery of the fixed costs. If and only after all the fixed costs are recovered can the airline turn in a profit. For any business to be sustainable, it needs to make a profit.

The myth of 'fleecing' air travelers

In the short run, supply of seats is largely fixed, as flight routes and schedules are announced in advance. It is therefore the demand for seats which drives airfares. When the demand is high, the airfares rise. Higher airfares help airlines earn revenues which compensate for low fares when the demand is low. The notion that airlines “fleece” travelers with high fares is therefore flawed and misleading. The 'fleecing' allegation is impossible to accept when most airlines are making losses. A 'fleecing' business would typically be a monopoly and make super-normal profits. If an airline demands fares which are exorbitant, travelers have an option of using some other airline, other modes of transport, or even not travelling at all. It is the traveler who decides whether she values the travel as much as the price of the ticket, and takes a decision. Also, high fares apply to a small number of seats that are sold closer to the date of flight, passengers who plan their travels well in advance can usually buy 'reasonably' priced tickets even in peak season. However, the media sensationalizes a few isolated instances of high spot fares and misleads the public. 

If there is any fleecing that occurs, it is due to the high taxes that are imposed on every aspect of the business. A huge chunk of the ticket price that the buyer pays doesn’t go to the airline. If high airfares in peak season are banned, it will impact the ability of the airlines to offer low airfares in slack season, and no one will be any wiser. 

On the death bed - again

The aviation sector in India was first opened up in the early 1990s, but most airlines which came up at that time have failed to survive. A second lot that came up in the early 2000s with the entry of low-cost pioneer Air Deccan has done no better.  The main contributor to poor mortality of India’s aviation sector is the regulator itself. The sector has been “…choking on high taxes, poor regulation and bad airports…”, to quote Capt. Gopinath. The DGCA seems to have taken upon itself the mandate to regulate airfares. The Narendra Modi government has come to power on a platform of 'good governance'. The PM has often espoused the cause of 'minimum government, maximum governance' and claims to have a business friendly image. That such a government can even think of regulating airfares sends a shiver down my spine. 

(See also "Our airfares are too low" on what are "high" and "low airfares)

Zero marks to the Zero Loss Theory

I was glad to come across the news that Shri. Kapil Sibal, Union Minister for Communications & I.T. has joined Twitter.  It is good that India’s political class is slowly but surely taking to the Social Media. This will help the political class and the citizenry to engage fruitfully with each other and bridge the gap between the two. Whether Shri. Sibal likes it or not, his name has been permanently etched in public memory with the Zero Loss Theory. Soon after Shri Sibal came on board, he was confronted with a question on the same: “Sir, please explain the zero loss theory in 140 characters” said a tweet. To this, Shri Sibal replied with the following: “Expenditure – Earnings = Loss, if expenditure is greater than earnings. Have you calculated earnings to calculate loss?”

One may recall that Shri. Chidambaram, the Union Minister of Finance also made a similar statement in the Coal Scam discussion. “…if the coal has not been mined, if coal remains buried in Mother Earth, where is the loss?” he was widely reported to have said. What Shri Sibal or Shri Chidambaram were saying is that since the beneficiaries of the alleged largesse have not monetized the giveaway, the spectrum or the coal mine, there is no loss.

In other words, if your car is stolen, there is no loss until the thief sells the car.

When put this way, the defect in the Zero Loss Theory becomes immediately apparent.

There is another related argument that is often made that needs to be demolished. It goes like this – ‘since government is not a profit making entity, assets need not always be sold to the highest bidder. Cheap spectrum can make cheap telephony available to the masses, and cheap coal can provide cheap electricity.’ This line of argument has even been made by the Prime Minister himself in the past. How far is this thinking valid?

The government owns nothing. It is a Trustee of the assets that belong to the citizens. Every sale of an asset below market price is a loss to the citizens and a net gain to the new asset owner. Once the asset is sold, neither the government nor its people control what the asset owner does with it. Hence selling assets cheap “in public interest” only results in losses that are certain and upfront, while the supposed benefits remain uncertain and in the future. The fallacy of this approach has been amply demonstrated in both the 2G and the Coal Scams.

Does this mean the government should always maximize revenue and profits?

No. Here, one needs to distinguish between selling assets and providing services. For example, the Railways can justifiably run at a loss – anyone who buys a ticket can benefit from the subsidy. The benefits cannot be monopolized. The assets remain with the government while the public benefit from the services. But the same cannot be said about selling spectrum or a coal mine, where neither the government nor the people can control what the asset owner does once the ownership is transferred. However, many a times this crucial point is missed.

I have not checked how many followers Shri. Sibal has acquired over Twitter. Does that mean he has Zero followers. Or does he, really?